January 13, 2011, HSBC Group Chief Economist Jane Shixun in the "2011 World Economic Outlook" press conference that capital flows and inflation in the global market in 2011 will be the main issues, and emerging markets continue to lead the world in 2011 economic growth.
HSBC expects U.S. economic growth in 2011 will reach 3.5%, and its quantitative easing policy would weaken the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, will contribute to global financial instability in the coming years when the phenomenon. Continued depreciation of the dollar means that China's foreign exchange value of dollar holdings has shrunk dramatically, the risk will cause the financial crisis from the U.S. to China. Jane Shixun that the United States will blame the global trade imbalance less than the valuation of the RMB is not right. For the global trade imbalances, the monetary value of the decision is not the only factor, nor is the most important determinants.
The next 10 years to 20 years, the dollar will gradually lose its reserve currency status, most likely will be a long-term alternative currency yuan, is expected within five years China's foreign trade volume will be one third of the RMB, RMB will be a global one of the three major currency trading. A clear trend in the currency of the West is gradually weakening, and the future will be significantly stronger Asian currencies.
Jane Shixun that the global economy in 2011, there are three main risks: The first problem is debt, debt levels are too high in Western countries, will affect the health of China's economic recovery is likely to fall into Western economies, the economic growth of Japan's stagnation, namely low inflation and deleveraging; The second issue is the amount of U.S. policy has resulted in wide influx of excess liquidity to emerging market countries, to increase the rate of inflation in emerging markets and asset market bubble of the double risk. The third problem is the friction will trigger Sino-US exchange rate of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods increase, coupled with the debt crisis in Europe and the second dip in U.S. economic growth in the Chinese economy's downside risk, could make China's domestic monetary tightening of macroeconomic policy will some degree of disruption occurred, unless effective remedy, or the Chinese economy in 2011 will exceed the risk of inflation expectations.
HSBC is expected to quantify the anti-inflationary tightening will remain the primary means. Reserve ratio is expected to be raised next year, more than 200 basis points, credit growth will be lower than 16%. Modest interest rate increase will help stabilize inflation expectations, the next 12 months there will be 3 times by 25 basis points of rate hikes.
HSBC believe that despite the recent implementation of the contraction of domestic regulators, liquidity and other measures to increase food supply, inflation in at least 1 quarter of 2011 will remain high. In the first half, China's domestic CPI inflation is likely to bounce back to 5% (china trade), and even in individual months may be more than 6%. The Chinese government will tighten monetary policy should increase the intensity of the implementation of tight monetary policy. Qu Hongbin, HSBC's Greater China chief economist for the year 2011 if we can control the size of new loans in 6000 to 7000 billion (china business), inflation would be back to 4% boost. Despite the tightening will slow down new investment projects. But more than 100,000 in the construction of a railway and highway projects, 10 million units of affordable housing in the follow-up investment and consumer confidence remain vibrant, will make next year's GDP growth rate of 9%. From: wholesale electronics
